NEW YORK: The rapid growth the Trump administration is banking on in its budget will deliver around $1.8tn of extra tax revenue, the US Treasury said in a paper as it battles scepticism among economists over its claims that tax cuts can pay for themselves. The one-page Treasury document, released on Monday, does not offer any detailed analysis of the drivers behind the elevated growth rates the administration is envisaging. Instead, the brief report works off the assumption that growth will be around 2.9 per cent a year over 10 years, as forecast in the administration’s 2018 budget — a prediction pencilled in before details of the tax overhaul were worked out in the Senate and House of Representatives. The 0.7 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate relative to previous forecasts would generate $1.8tn of extra revenue over the decade-long period, the Treasury said on Monday. That means overall receipts over 10 years would increase by $300bn. Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury secretary, has repeatedly argued that the tax cuts would more than pay for themselves and actually reduce the deficit — prompting calls for analysis backing up his claims. The Treasury’s inspector-general is looking into the process behind the department’s analysis of the tax reforms. In the document the Treasury says “we acknowledge that some economists predict different growth rates”. Half of the 0.7 percentage point increase in growth rates would come from changes to corporate taxation, it says, and the rest from changes to the taxation of so-called pass-through businesses, individual tax reform, regulatory reform, infrastructure development and welfare reform.
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