BANKOK: Exports are likely to boost economic growth to 4% next year, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said.
Thanavath Phonvichai, the university’s vice-president for research, said the forecast is based on the assumption that exports will grow by 4.1% in 2015, a figure made possible by comparing it with 2014’s low growth.
The rise in exports will be driven by expanded economic opportunities in the Asean region, China, Japan and the US, resulting in them having more purchasing power and importing more, he said.
The university projected that domestic consumption would expand by 2.7% next year, thanks to the government’s stimulus measures. Government and private investment is expected to rise by 6.9%. The industrial sector is projected to grow by 4.5%, but the farm sector likely will expand only 1.6%.
Mr Thanavath said the recovery of the Thai and global economies would be clearer after the second quarter because the government’s fiscal injection would enter the system in the first quarter. The growth will be generated from large and medium-scale businesses, but small companies still do not see bright outlook.
He anticipated much fluctuation in exchange rates, with one US dollar fetching 33-34 baht, as interest rate increases in the US have helped strengthen the greenback. Oil prices are estimated to reach $80-$90 per barrel on average.