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Japan exports hit by weak China demand, raising risk of economic contraction

Japan exports hit by weak China demand, raising risk of economic contraction

Japan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in March as China-bound shipments slumped again, reinforcing growing anxiety that weak external demand may have knocked the economy into contraction in the first quarter.
Ministry of Finance data out on Wednesday showed exports fell 2.4 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with a 2.7-percent drop predicted by economists in a Reuters poll, and followed a 1.2-percent decline in February.

The data reinforces worries that weak external demand may hurt company profits and in turn curb business expenditures, workers’ wages and consumer spending in a broad hit to growth, Reuters wrote.

“Slump in exports have caused capital expenditure to drop sharply and private consumption to slow,” said Ryutaro Kono, the chief economist at BNP Paribas Securities.

“As such, Japan’s economy likely contracted again in the first quarter.”

The specter of a first quarter contraction would pile pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to once again delay a planned sales tax hike in October needed to fix the world’s heaviest public debt burden at twice the size of its economy.

The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter driven by business and consumer spending.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week stuck to his optimism that Japan’s export-dependent economy will soon climb out of its doldrums as global growth recovers.

Kuroda, however, did warn of lingering risks to the global outlook, including the outcome of US-China trade talks and Britain’s potentially messy departure from the European Union.

Markets expect the BoJ to stand pat at a rate review next week, though some investors say the recent batch of soft indicators may pile pressure on policymakers to add to the central bank’s already massive stimulus later in the year.